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Coverage

Kenya

Project time

September 2014 - February 2015

Objectives/scope

Project objective: Carry out a multi-scale pan-tropical modeling of the Non-Renewable Biomass fraction (fNRB) of woodfuels use in order to strengthen GACC action by highlighting priority areas of intervention. The study has a multi-scale geospatial approach : Tier 1 covers tropical countries (see pan-tropical case study), Tier 2 covering Karnataka (see case study) , Kenya (here profiled) and Honduras, and Tier 3 covering select areas within such countries for in-depth project-level analyses (in progress).

Institutional settings

GACC Yale-UNAM project "Geospatial Analysis and Modeling of Non-Renewable Biomass: WISDOM and beyond" (see pan-tropical case study); Informal collaboration with Kenya Forest Service (KFS) and REDD+ Coordinator.

Scale/resolution

The Kenya case study (Tier 2) has a spatial resolution of analysis of 100 m. fNRB rates are produced at County level (47 units).

Demand features

Residential demand was estimated using 2009 Census' population and fuel saturation statistics. Per capita consumption was based on 2004 household survey. Woodfuel demand in the industrial, commercial and public sectors was based on various studies (mainly Min. Energy reports). Two scenarios were considered: Total Demand (all fuelwood types) and Conventional Demand (excluding marginal fuelwood types such as twigs and small branches and annual pruning of farm trees and shrubs).

Supply features

The Supply Module was based on 2010 forest type and density maps produced by KFS and on LCCS 2008 produced by Kenya Department of Resource Surveys and Remote Sensing (DRSRS). Forest stock was estimated based on KFS for plantations and other regional references; for productivity, on (i) geo-referenced field plots with stock and MAI from similar ecological conditions and (ii) KFS plantation inventory data. Legal accessibility map was created using protected areas. Map of Physical accessibility (transport time - return trip loaded) was built ad-hoc based on 90m DTM and land cover data (friction) and detailed road and settlement data (target)

Integration features

The supply/demand balance was estimated and mapped at pixel level and in a local context of 6 km. Commercial balance was mapped considering the resources economically viable.

Woodshed/bio-shed analysis

Woodshed analysis was based on weighted interpolation using Dinamica EGO, combining fuelwood demand from major deficit sites and friction parameters. The probable harvesting zones were defined using transport time thresholds.

Integration with other aspects

Non-renewable biomass fraction (fNRB) of woodfuels harvesting. Range of fNRB values were estimated, based on assumptions about Demand scenarios, commercial harvesting feeding rural areas and forest management.

Findings/conclusions

Woodfuel demand in Kenya in 2009 was 25.2 Mt od (Conventional demand) or 27.4 Mt od (Total demand). Of this, 38-41% was harvested unsustainably (fNRB), depending on the demand considered. In addition, assuming that LCC by-products in accessible areas are utilized as woodfuels, the fNRB of the remaining direct woodfuel harvesting lower to 31-35%. Different assumptions on the fraction of fuelwood gaps in rural areas served by commercial harvesting do not affect overall fNRB rates but modify the areas where unsustainable harvesting takes place.

Publications

Drigo R, Bailis R, Ghilardi A, Masera O.2015. WISDOM Kenya - Analysis of woodfuel supply, demand and sustainability in Kenya. Tier 2 Report. GACC Yale-UNAM Project "Geospatial Analysis and Modeling of Non-Renewable Biomass: WISDOM and beyond".