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Coverage

Zambia

Project time

October 2016 - January 2017

Objectives/scope

Contribute to the formulation of the REDD+ Investment Plan for Zambia through the estimation and spatial distribution of the risk of forest degradation induced by excessive fuelwood extractions and charcoal production

Institutional settings

FAO - UN REDD Project "Phase II of Integrated Land Use Assessment in the Republic of Zambia (ILUA II) GCP/GLO/194/MUL (FIN) - Zambia"

Scale/resolution

Raster cell resolution = 100 m. Administrative = Ward (1421 units)

Demand features

The consumption in the residential sector was based on data from Census 2010 for saturation and from various sources for per capita consumption. Consumption estimates for other uses (commercial, industrial and public sectors), were based on recent research by the Ministry of Mines, Energy and Water Development.

Supply features

The supply potential was estimated and mapped using land cover map and Carbon stock map and georeferenced field inventory data (3,586 plots) , all produced by ILUA II . Productivity estimates were based on stock/MAI relation from national and international data. Two variants were considered: a "low" productivity variant based on IPCC ref. values and a "high" productivity variant based on observations referring to tropical broadleaves. Legal accessibility map was created using protected areas. Map of Physical accessibility (transport time - return trip loaded) was built ad-hoc based on 90m DTM and land cover data (friction) and detailed road and settlement data (target)

Integration features

The supply/demand balance was estimated and mapped at pixel level and in a local context of 5 km. Commercial balance was mapped considering the resources economically viable.

Woodshed/bio-shed analysis

Woodshed analysis was based on weighted interpolation using Dinamica EGO, combining fuelwood demand from major deficit sites and friction parameters. The probable harvesting zones and degradation rates were estimated/mapped for alternative scenarios based on various assumptions on transport time thresholds and use of land cover change by-products.

Integration with other aspects

Expected degradation rates due to unsustainable woodfuels harvesting were estimated and mapped. Scenarios of degradation were estimated, based on different assumptions on the use of deforestation by-products.

Findings/conclusions

The accessible sustainable supply potential is in Zambia between 46.8 and 67.6 Mt DM, depending on the productivity assumed. The woodfuel demand in 2010 was 13 Mt DM, which shows a large potential surplus. In spite of this, the spatial distribution of consumption sites and the consequent concentration of harvesting areas induce the partial overexploitation of accessible resources. The annual unsustainable harvesting is estimated between 0.2 and 0.6 Mt DM, depending on the full use or no use of deforestation by-products, respectively, and is concentrated around the central axis of the country where the major urban centres are located.

Publications

Drigo R. (Final draft). Analysis of demand, supply and sustainability of wood products in Zambia. Analyzing ILUA II data to inform REDD+ investment. Final Report. Phase II of Integrated Land Use Assessment in the Republic of Zambia. GCP/GLO/194/MUL (FIN) - Zambia